Weekly observations

What the system sees, published before outcomes are known. This page is a permanent, timestamped record of regime classifications and divergence states across 6 regions.

Each observation is a weekly snapshot, cryptographically timestamped at publication. The live API updates daily — classifications may change between weekly observations. Any mid-week regime changes are documented in the following week’s entry. The hash at the bottom of each entry proves what the system reported at publication time.

Parameters locked March 2026. Prospective validation live. Full methodology at How it works.

Week of 31 March 2026 (corrected)

2026-04-03

Region	Regime	Note
US	Transition	Approaching key boundary — one signal from Stagflation trigger
AU	Expansion	Stable — no elevated boundary pressure
DE	Transition	Low stability — multiple stress channels active
GB	Transition	Closest to regime change — all Stagflation pressure constraints met
JP	Transition	Stable — no elevated boundary pressure
CA	Expansion	Stable — leading indicators above contraction threshold

Divergence

Active in 4 of 6 regions (AU, DE, GB, JP). Energy stress elevated across all regions. Labour market deterioration in DE, GB, and JP independent of the energy channel. Credit markets remain below stress thresholds in all regions. The breadth of simultaneous divergence across 4 regions has not occurred in the backtested validation period (1998–2024).

Classification changes

Corrected observation replacing the original 2026-w14 entry. GB reclassified from Stagflation to Transition after a data refresh resolved stale input signals. All other regions unchanged.

Context

Energy costs remain the dominant cross-regional stress factor. GB is the closest region to a regime change. US is approaching its primary Stagflation trigger. DE mirrors the US directional pattern. The system corrected a stale data issue during this observation period — the directional intelligence (transition pressure) was unaffected and remained consistent throughout. Full correction details available in the authenticated platform.

Observation hash: 64ef15c62030. RFC 3161 verification token available via API.

Week of 31 March 2026 (withdrawn)

2026-04-03

Region	Regime	Note
US	Transition	Approaching stress boundary
AU	Expansion	Stable
DE	Transition	Multiple stress channels active
GB	Stagflation	Labour deterioration
JP	Transition	Labour deterioration
CA	Expansion	Leading indicators declining

Divergence

Active in 4 of 6 regions (AU, DE, GB, JP). Multiple economic stress channels elevated while credit markets remain below stress thresholds. First observation period — no prior baseline.

Classification changes

WITHDRAWN — GB corrected from Stagflation to Transition after data refresh. Corrected observation above (hash 64ef15c62030). Original hash preserved for the record.

Context

Energy costs are the common factor across all six regions. This was the system’s first prospective observation. All classifications were cryptographically timestamped via RFC 3161 before outcomes were known.

Observation hash: 409b747cc946. RFC 3161 verification token available via API.

Observations are published weekly. All classifications are cryptographically timestamped before outcomes are known. Historical observations accumulate on this page as a permanent record of the system’s prospective performance.